Economic diversification and the Public Investment Fund

Key takeaways

Diversifying the economy is the central goal of Vision 2030, and the Public Investment Fund is its main investment engine.
On the official scorecard, the private sector’s share of GDP rose from 44% to 51%, ahead of its interim target.
Other indicators, including PIF assets, foreign investment and non-oil exports, were behind their 2025 interim targets.
Targets have moved over time: the PIF asset goal on the scorecard is higher than the original 2016 aim.

The most important idea in Vision 2030 is economic diversification: building an economy that does not rise and fall with a single commodity. The original document puts it bluntly, aiming to build a more resilient economy with a larger role for the private sector. This guide looks at what that means, what the Public Investment Fund does, and what the official numbers say about progress and gaps.

What diversification means in practice

Diversification has three working parts. The first is growing non-oil sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, mining, logistics and finance. The second is expanding the private sector, through easier business rules, privatisation of selected services and support for small businesses. The third is public finance reform, so that the government’s budget depends less on oil revenue and is managed more efficiently.

The Public Investment Fund

The Public Investment Fund Program, launched in 2017, is dedicated to maximising the impact of the fund, which the official page calls the engine that drives the diversification of the economy. It has four stated objectives: growing the fund’s assets, unlocking new sectors, localising edge technology and knowledge, and building strategic economic partnerships. Five giga-projects, covered in our explainer, sit under it.

Numbers on the fund need a date. The program page says that as of July 2022 the fund had reached $700 billion in assets under management and had established 79 companies. The scorecard gives a later figure: US$0.91 trillion in 2025, up from US$0.19 trillion in 2016. The same scorecard sets a 2030 goal of US$2.67 trillion. The original 2016 document aimed for assets of over SAR 7 trillion, so the goal has risen.

Contemporary skyscrapers in Riyadh at dusk — Office towers in Riyadh’s financial district at dusk. Photo: abdullah-t / Pexels.

The scorecard: progress and gaps

Indicator	2016 baseline	2025 latest	2025 target	2030 target
PIF assets under management (US$ trillion)	0.19	0.91	1.09	2.67
Real non-oil GDP (US$ billion)	598	892	904	1,325
Private sector share of GDP	44%	51%	47%	65%
SME loans, share of bank loans	2%	11.3%	11%	20%
Non-oil exports, share of non-oil GDP	16.9%	22.14%	38%	50%
FDI share of GDP	1% (2017)	2.8%	3.4%	5.7%

Source: Vision 2030 KPI page. The “2025 target” is the interim target shown on the scorecard.

What is ahead

The private sector’s contribution to GDP rose from 44% in 2016 to 51% in 2025, ahead of an interim target of 47%, though the 2030 goal is 65%. Loans to small and medium enterprises rose from 2% to 11.3% of bank loans, slightly above the interim 11%. Real GDP grew from US$995 billion in 2016 to US$1,307 billion in 2025, and real non-oil GDP from US$598 billion to US$892 billion. Local content in the oil and gas sector rose from 37% in 2016 to 67.4% in 2024, against a 75% target.

What is behind

Several indicators were short of their 2025 interim targets. PIF assets stood at US$0.91 trillion against an interim US$1.09 trillion. Real non-oil GDP was US$892 billion against US$904 billion. Foreign direct investment was 2.8% of GDP against a 3.4% interim target and a 5.7% goal. The largest gap is non-oil exports, at 22.14% of non-oil GDP against an interim 38% and a 2030 target of 50%.

These gaps do not mean the strategy has failed, but they show where the hardest work remains. They are also a reminder to read targets in context: an interim target is a checkpoint, not a final verdict.

Modern passenger train at a station in Dammam, Saudi Arabia — A passenger train at a station in Dammam. Rail and logistics are part of the plan to make the Kingdom a global logistics hub. Photo: inthisham-lafir / Pexels.

Finance, privatisation and the rules of the game

Two programs focused on the framework rather than on projects. The Fiscal Sustainability Program, which began in 2016 as the Fiscal Balance Program, completed its plan in February 2025, the first program to do so. Its official page highlights new entities such as EXPRO, which is aimed at improving government spending efficiency, and the National Debt Management Center. The Privatization Program, which concluded at the end of 2025, was credited with the Private Sector Participation Law and the creation of the National Center for Privatization and PPP.

The Financial Sector Development Program, launched in 2018, worked with the central bank, the capital market and insurance regulators. Its official page lists a financial technology strategy, three licensed digital banks and a financial academy, and says the Saudi capital market ranks among the world’s top ten and has been included in major global indices.

How to read the next headline

Look at the base year. A rise from a small base can look dramatic.
Compare to the right target. Interim and 2030 targets differ.
Separate stocks from flows. Assets under management is a stock, while investment in a year is a flow.

To see these ideas applied across the whole plan, read our at-a-glance guide, or go to the programs page for the list of programs.